Wegovy, Saxenda, Ozempic shortages prompt Morgan Stanley to bump its global obesity market forecast

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts raised their forecast for the global obesity market by over 40% in response to the supply shortages.

Analysts now see the market hitting $77 billion in 2030, up from the prior forecast of $54B.

“The uptake of obesity medicines in the US over the past 12 months has been stronger than we had anticipated, whilst indirectly supporting a profound acceleration in the use of GLP-1 medicines in diabetes,” they said in a note

The analysts note that patient demand for this type of medicine “has outstripped drug supply,” mostly due to fueled by social media activity.

“Reimbursement for obesity medicines has expanded much faster than we had anticipated, covering 40m lives in the US, which exceeds the total number of people estimated to be suffering from diabetes. We estimate that Wegovy sales in the US would have exceeded $7bn in 2023 without the advent of supply chain shortages,” they added.

In this context, the analysts see Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), the manufacturer of Wegovy, Ozempic, and Saxenda treatments, and Mounjaro-producer Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), as clear “diabesity” leaders. These two are projected to have an 82% combined market share.

“Our updated obesity market model forecasts suggest ~26% upside potential to the Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk 2030 group revenue estimates in our company models, with pivotal data for their next generation of obesity medicines reading out in 2025-26, carrying the potential to offset pricing and competitive risks and open up new treatment opportunities.”