USD/JPY: Next on the upside emerges 145.00 – UOB

The current upside bias could motivate USD/JPY to revisit the 145.00 area in the next few weeks, according to UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes
24-hour view: We expected USD to consolidate between 142.80 and 143.80 yesterday. Our view was incorrect as it rose to a fresh 7-month high of 144.19. Despite the advance, upward momentum has not improved much. However, as long as the support at 143.20 (minor support is at 143.50) is not breached, USD could retest the 144.20 level. The major resistance at 145.00 is highly unlikely to come into view.

Next 1-3 weeks: We have held a positive USD view for about 2 weeks now (see annotations in the chart below). In our latest narrative from last Friday (23 Jun, spot at 143.10), we indicated that USD “is likely to continue to rise and the next level to watch is 144.00.” Yesterday, USD broke above 144.00 and rose to a high of 144.19. While the USD strength is intact, it remains to be seen if it has enough momentum to reach the next ‘target’ at 145.00. It is worth noting that after two weeks of strong advance, conditions are severely overbought. All in all, only a breach of 142.80 (‘strong support’ level previously at 142.30) would suggest that USD is not strengthening further.