Russian finance ministry to increase deferred FX purchases in October

Russia’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it would increase the volume of deferred foreign currency purchases in the coming month to a cumulative total of 398.7 billion Russian roubles ($4.010 billion).

The purchases, in line with Russia’s budget rule, will be deferred because the central bank in August said it would stop buying foreign currency until the end of the year to avoid aggravating pressure on the rouble, which this week again weakened beyond the threshold of 100 to the dollar.

The ministry said its purchases of FX and gold for the period from Oct. 6 to Nov. 7 that will be deferred to a later date would amount to 18.1 billion roubles per day.

Analysts surveyed by Reuters had predicted purchases would total 310 billion roubles.

In the previous period, between Sept. 7 and Oct. 5, the ministry had planned to purchase foreign currency worth 276.2 billion roubles to compensate for lower oil and gas revenues.

The central bank has said it will decide when to resume buying FX based on market conditions, and that purchases postponed during 2023 may be made in 2024 and subsequent years.

Under its budget rule, Russia sells foreign currency from its wealth fund to make up for any shortfall in revenue from oil and gas exports, or makes purchases in the event of a surplus.

The finance ministry’s decision to increase FX purchases means it expects energy revenues to be above plan in the coming month. It estimated the volume of excess oil and gas revenues in October at 513.5 billion roubles.

From January to July, with energy revenues lower due to Western sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the finance ministry sold 559 billion roubles’ worth of foreign currency. Since August, it has been buying foreign currency as commodity prices have risen and energy revenues recovered.

($1 = 99.4175 roubles)