Morgan Stanley sees 15% chance of Scottish independence from UK

There is a 15% chance of Scottish independence from the United Kingdom and a 30% risk of second independence referendum, investment bank Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said on Wednesday, ahead of national elections early next month.

Current polls suggest that the Scottish National Party (SNP) could win an outright majority in May 6 polls, and with the pro-independence Greens also set to pick up some seats, the Scottish parliament, Holyrood, looks almost certain to have a majority in favour of independence.

“With the pro-independence parties likely to secure a majority in the May 6 Holyrood election, we see a 15% chance of independence,” Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

After a possible second independence referendum which it gave a 30% chance of taking place, the bank said it would take at least two years to negotiate the arrangements for separation, implying January 1, 2025 as the earliest plausible date for independence.