Factbox-Brokerages ramp up ECB rate hike bets on sticky inflation, hawkish policymakers

Most brokerages expect two more 25-basis point rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) as inflation remains sticky and central bank policymakers strike a hawkish stance.

The ECB deposit rate now stands at a 22-year high of 3.5% following a 25-basis point hike last month. Its euro short-term rate forwards currently implies the deposit rate would peak at around 3.9% in December or early next year.

Following are forecasts from some big global banks:

Brokerage July September Terminal

Name Rate

J.P.Morgan 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

Goldman 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

Sachs

Citigroup (NYSE:C) 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

UniCredit (LON:0RLS) 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

BNP Paribas (EPA:BNPP) 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

RBC 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

BofA 25 bps hike Sees “significant risk” 3.75%

of a 4% terminal rate

in September

Barclays (LON:BARC) 25 bps hike no hike 3.75%

Morgan 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%

Stanley

Deutsche 25 bps hike “A further hike to 4% 3.75%

Bank in September cannot be

ruled out, but is also

not a done deal”

UBS 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%