Dollar Down, Investors Digest Powell’s Dovish Speech on Bond Tapering

The dollar was down on Monday morning in Asia in the wake of U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s dovish speech on bond tapering at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.06% to 92.640 by 12:01 AM ET (4:01 AM GMT).

The USD/JPY pair inched down 0.06% to 109.76.

The AUD/USD pair inched down 0.10 % to 0.7303 while the NZD/USD pair inched down 0.08% to 0.6999.

The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.05% to 6.4678, with Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) due on Wednesday.

The GBP/USD pair inched up 0.04% to 1.3769.

Powell said the Fed is likely to start paring back stimulus measures before the end of 2021 without specifying the timeline.

“It could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year,” Powell said in a speech. However, he also suggested it is in no hurry to raise interest rates.“The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test,” he added.

“Powell was vague on the timing of tapering, and his reiteration that it is separate from a decision to raise rates was read to imply that there’d be a gap,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

“That has, in turn, seen the market take a Goldilocks view of the Fed – stimulus will be reduced, but not so quickly as to snuff out the recovery.”
Investors are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payroll due on Friday to get clues on when the asset tapering will start.

“Together with COVID-19 trends, Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls will make or break the case for announcing tapering at the (Fed’s) September meeting,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) analyst Kim Mundy told Reuters.

“We consider another 800,000 jobs should be enough to announce tapering. We expect the dollar to regain some lost ground this week while market participants are still worried COVID-19 will slow the world economy,” Mundy said.