Dollar Climbs as Soaring Inflation Boosts Rate Hike Expectations

The U.S. dollar climbed strongly Friday, after soaring consumer prices lifted expectations the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates this year, starting next month.

At 2:55 AM ET (0755 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.4% higher at 95.915.

Data released Thursday showed U.S. consumer prices rising 7.5% year-on-year in January, the highest annual increase in 40 years, and the fourth straight month above 6%.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard followed the release by stating that he has become “dramatically” more hawkish, calling for a full percentage point of interest rate hikes over the next three U.S. central bank policy meetings.

The market has responded, with the yield on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury climbing past 2% for the first time since August 2019, and rates futures are now pricing in a better-than-two-in-three chance of a 50 bp hike next month.

Influential investment bank Goldman Sachs now expects seven 25 basis point interest rate rises from the Fed, up from its previous forecast of five.

USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 116.06, after climbing to a five-week high of 116.34 overnight, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.6% to 0.7126.

EUR/USD fell 0.4% to 1.1385, with the euro already weakened by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde rowing back on the hawkish impression made at the central bank’s policy meeting last week, warning that the Governing Council would harm the Eurozone economy’s rebound from the pandemic if it were to rush to tighten monetary policy.

GBP/USD dropped 0.1% to 1.3537, with sterling receiving some support from economic data showing the U.K. economy expanded at the fastest pace since World War II last year after suffering a milder hit than expected in December.

Gross domestic product fell 0.2% in December as the Omicron variant hit restaurant and hospitality sectors, but the economy still expanded by 7.5% last year, the most since 1941.

Elsewhere, EUR/SEK traded 0.1% lower at 10.6092 while USD/SEK rose 0.3% to 9.3164 after the Riksbank maintained its dovish monetary policy stance despite the global shift toward tightening.

“Even if the risk of too low inflation is assessed to have declined, it still remains,” the Riksbank said in a statement on Thursday.

USD/RUB traded 0.1% lower at 74.9597 ahead of the latest policy-meeting by the Bank of Russia. The central bank is expected to deliver a third 100 basis-point increase in its key interest rate in less than a year later Friday to 9.5%, with inflation still seen as a major issue.

Dollar Climbs as Soarin