Credit Suisse Sees Risk of Tesla Missing Q1 Deliveries Consensus Amid Supply and COVID-19 Constraints

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Levy has previewed Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) delivery numbers for Q1 2022 as the focus remains on supply chain bottlenecks.

Levy projects that Tesla will deliver 307k electric vehicle (EV) units in the quarter, which is a bit lower than the consensus of 313k. Tesla delivered 308k units in Q421.

Decomposing 1Q deliveries, Jan/Feb combined deliveries was likely ~130k units; for context, Jan/Feb is below the prior first-two-months record of ~138k in Oct/Nov. Assuming Jan/Feb sales of ~130k, our expectation assumes March deliveries of ~177k units, which would represent the highest-ever final month of a quarter for Tesla (prior high of ~170k in Dec21), benefiting from the continued ramp of volume in China, Levy explained in a client note.

The analyst reiterated that deliveries estimates are almost completely dictated by supply while the recent COVID-19-related challenges in China are also likely to push the risk to the downside.

Given Tesla deliveries are typically heavily weighted toward the end of the quarter, it is certainly possible that Tesla’s likely quarter-end wave will be somewhat limited by the rise of COVID (albeit, the shutdown is not nationwide, thus it’s unclear how much the shutdown will impact deliveries).

Despite these challenges, Levy has reiterated his Outperform rating on Tesla as he believes the long-term case for Tesla is only stronger “amid rising oil prices, EV uptake is an increased priority, and with Tesla the global leader in EV, its long-term case is amplified.”

Tesla stock price is up a further 2.7% in pre-open Tuesday after closing 8% higher yesterday on the stock split announcement.